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Firstly, because some producers are heavily exposed to disruption in the Middle East. ExxonMobil, for instance, has operations at Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial hub, where production has been shut down since early March, and which has now been hit by Iranian missile attacks, causing “extensive damage”.

According to experts at the local National Drought Management Authority, the rains have been uneven, with some parts of Turkana receiving little to none, while the rainfall remains unpredictable and insufficient to offset the impact of the last two failed rainy seasons.

Gas prices, which had already been rising since the start of the conflict, surged in response to the Iranian attack on Qatar. The UK benchmark peaked briefly at almost 183p per therm on Thursday before easing back to 154.8p, an 11.3% increase from Wednesday’s level. European prices also rose by more than 10%.